Spachus market outlook

Australian property market forecast rankings

Compare Spachus 3, 6 and 12 month property price forecasts across 16 Australian markets, ranked from the weakest to strongest 12-month outlook.

V3.7 persistent-decline outlook · Sep2026
Markets falling 12 of 16 12-month outlook below -0.5%
Broadly stable 1 Between -0.5% and +0.5%
Markets rising 3 12-month outlook above +0.5%
Average 12-month outlook -7.3% Simple average across tracked markets
Weakest 12-month outlook -12.5% Adelaide

How far have markets already fallen?

Compare all 16 markets with their highest 3-year median-price trend and see the percentage and dollar decline from peak.

View peak decline rankings

Australian property market forecast rankings

All markets ranked by the current 12-month V3.7 central forecast, from weakest to strongest.

Forecasts as at Sep2026
Rank Market Current median 3 months 6 months 12 months Direction 12m range Confidence
#1 Adelaide All $835,000 549 tracked sales -4.5% $797,408 -8.0% $768,321 -12.5% $730,705 Strong decline $618k – $843k Medium View market
#2 Perth All $890,000 558 tracked sales -5.0% $845,713 -8.7% $812,965 -12.1% $782,043 Strong decline $594k – $970k Medium View market
#3 Newcastle All $900,000 256 tracked sales -6.0% $845,832 -10.4% $806,234 -11.8% $793,618 Strong decline $672k – $915k Medium View market
#4 Sunshine Coast All $1,152,500 180 tracked sales -6.0% $1,082,869 -10.8% $1,028,380 -11.7% $1,017,986 Strong decline $862k – $1.174m Medium View market
#5 Darwin All $570,000 21 tracked sales -6.0% $535,732 -10.7% $508,820 -11.6% $503,605 Strong decline $377k – $630k Low View market
#6 Geelong All $706,000 125 tracked sales -3.8% $679,415 -6.5% $659,770 -11.4% $625,421 Strong decline $528k – $723k Low View market
#7 Gold Coast All $1,075,000 332 tracked sales -5.2% $1,019,548 -8.8% $980,836 -10.6% $961,576 Strong decline $783k – $1.140m Low View market
#8 Cairns All $655,000 68 tracked sales -5.5% $618,720 -8.8% $597,560 -10.1% $588,570 Strong decline $497k – $680k Low View market
#9 Brisbane All $975,000 698 tracked sales -4.6% $929,725 -7.8% $899,434 -10.0% $877,976 Strong decline $709k – $1.047m Medium View market
#10 Central Coast NSW All $975,000 173 tracked sales -4.6% $930,237 -7.1% $905,459 -9.3% $884,565 Strong decline $760k – $1.009m Medium View market
#11 Sydney All $1,015,000 1,048 tracked sales -2.1% $993,999 -3.6% $978,795 -7.0% $944,349 Falling $792k – $1.097m Medium View market
#12 Melbourne All $726,615 708 tracked sales -1.6% $714,778 -3.0% $705,090 -5.5% $686,850 Falling $608k – $765k Medium View market
#13 Canberra All $732,500 196 tracked sales +0.2% $733,896 +0.3% $734,920 +0.5% $735,945 Broadly stable $638k – $834k Low View market
#14 Wollongong All $1,012,500 100 tracked sales +0.6% $1,018,258 +0.7% $1,019,633 +0.9% $1,021,608 Slight growth $877k – $1.166m Medium View market
#15 Townsville All $720,000 58 tracked sales +0.4% $723,083 +0.7% $725,184 +1.3% $729,509 Slight growth $628k – $831k Low View market
#16 Hobart All $770,000 91 tracked sales +1.5% $781,498 +2.0% $785,527 +3.3% $795,315 Rising $693k – $897k Low View market
#1Adelaide
Current median $835,000
Strong decline
3 months -4.5% $797,408
6 months -8.0% $768,321
12 months -12.5% $730,705
Medium confidence View market
#2Perth
Current median $890,000
Strong decline
3 months -5.0% $845,713
6 months -8.7% $812,965
12 months -12.1% $782,043
Medium confidence View market
#3Newcastle
Current median $900,000
Strong decline
3 months -6.0% $845,832
6 months -10.4% $806,234
12 months -11.8% $793,618
Medium confidence View market
#4Sunshine Coast
Current median $1,152,500
Strong decline
3 months -6.0% $1,082,869
6 months -10.8% $1,028,380
12 months -11.7% $1,017,986
Medium confidence View market
#5Darwin
Current median $570,000
Strong decline
3 months -6.0% $535,732
6 months -10.7% $508,820
12 months -11.6% $503,605
Low confidence View market
#6Geelong
Current median $706,000
Strong decline
3 months -3.8% $679,415
6 months -6.5% $659,770
12 months -11.4% $625,421
Low confidence View market
#7Gold Coast
Current median $1,075,000
Strong decline
3 months -5.2% $1,019,548
6 months -8.8% $980,836
12 months -10.6% $961,576
Low confidence View market
#8Cairns
Current median $655,000
Strong decline
3 months -5.5% $618,720
6 months -8.8% $597,560
12 months -10.1% $588,570
Low confidence View market
#9Brisbane
Current median $975,000
Strong decline
3 months -4.6% $929,725
6 months -7.8% $899,434
12 months -10.0% $877,976
Medium confidence View market
#10Central Coast NSW
Current median $975,000
Strong decline
3 months -4.6% $930,237
6 months -7.1% $905,459
12 months -9.3% $884,565
Medium confidence View market
#11Sydney
Current median $1,015,000
Falling
3 months -2.1% $993,999
6 months -3.6% $978,795
12 months -7.0% $944,349
Medium confidence View market
#12Melbourne
Current median $726,615
Falling
3 months -1.6% $714,778
6 months -3.0% $705,090
12 months -5.5% $686,850
Medium confidence View market
#13Canberra
Current median $732,500
Broadly stable
3 months +0.2% $733,896
6 months +0.3% $734,920
12 months +0.5% $735,945
Low confidence View market
#14Wollongong
Current median $1,012,500
Slight growth
3 months +0.6% $1,018,258
6 months +0.7% $1,019,633
12 months +0.9% $1,021,608
Medium confidence View market
#15Townsville
Current median $720,000
Slight growth
3 months +0.4% $723,083
6 months +0.7% $725,184
12 months +1.3% $729,509
Low confidence View market
#16Hobart
Current median $770,000
Rising
3 months +1.5% $781,498
6 months +2.0% $785,527
12 months +3.3% $795,315
Low confidence View market
V3.7 is the current Spachus central market outlook. The 3-, 6- and 12-month percentages are measured from the latest completed median. Forecasts are indicative market-level projections rather than guarantees or individual property valuations.